China’s Ageing Population Reaches Turning Point as Elderly Dependency Overtakes Children
The milestone highlights rising pressure on pensions, healthcare and social services as low birth rates and longer life expectancy reshape the country's population.
China's population structure has reached a significant demographic milestone, with the number of people aged 65 and above exceeding the number of children aged 14 and under, highlighting the growing economic and social pressures associated with an ageing population and declining birth rates.
The shift was reported by Reuters on October 28, citing data from China's National Bureau of Statistics reported by Chinese financial news outlet Yicai. The figures indicate that China is entering a period in which the demands of supporting older people are becoming increasingly important relative to the needs of its younger population.
China's old-age dependency ratio reached 23.1% in 2025, compared with a child dependency ratio of 22%, according to the figures cited by Reuters. The old-age dependency ratio measures the population aged 65 and above relative to the working-age population, while the child dependency ratio measures the corresponding burden represented by children.
The number of people aged 65 and above exceeded 223 million, compared with approximately 213 million children aged 14 and under. The change reflects decades of demographic transformation shaped by lower fertility, longer life expectancy, urbanisation and changes in family structure.
The old-age dependency ratio has risen steadily over the past decade, increasing from around 15% in 2016 to more than 20% in 2021, Reuters reported. The latest figures underline the speed at which the balance between younger and older generations is changing.
China's overall population declined for a fourth consecutive year in 2025, while the birth rate fell to a record low, according to Reuters. The country's long period of low fertility was influenced by the one-child policy, which was in place from 1980 to 2015, as well as wider social and economic changes associated with rapid urbanisation.
The demographic shift poses several challenges for policymakers. A growing older population is likely to increase demand for pensions, healthcare, long-term care services and accessible housing. At the same time, a smaller population of children may eventually translate into fewer new entrants to the labour market, potentially affecting productivity, tax revenues and the size of the workforce available to support retirees.
The consequences will vary across regions and income groups. Areas with large elderly populations and limited local fiscal resources may face particular difficulties in providing healthcare and social services. Families may also encounter greater pressure to care for older relatives while managing housing, education and employment costs.
China has introduced measures intended to encourage marriage and childbearing, including family subsidies, childcare support and reductions in childbirth-related medical expenses, according to Reuters. Authorities have also pledged to make urban life more supportive for young people and families.
However, demographic policies can take years to influence population trends. Decisions about having children are affected not only by direct subsidies but also by housing affordability, job security, childcare availability, education expenses and expectations about future living standards.
The demographic transition also creates opportunities for industries serving older consumers. Healthcare services, rehabilitation, assistive technology, age-friendly housing and other forms of elderly care could see growing demand. Businesses may increasingly need to adapt products and services to consumers with different mobility, health and financial needs.
For China's economy, the central challenge will be to maintain productivity and living standards as the population ages. Improvements in labour-force participation, skills, automation and healthcare efficiency could help mitigate some pressures, but they cannot eliminate the need to adapt pension and social-care systems.
The latest figures therefore represent more than a statistical milestone. They point to a long-term structural change that will influence China's public finances, labour market, household decisions and consumer economy for years to come.